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Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

26th Sep 2021, 12:40

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

Amen to that... although maybe the last thing...

Amen to that... although maybe the last thing Asia would need right now is Australian carrots being waved in front of their doctors and nurses.

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

26th Sep 2021, 11:26

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

Not being in WA and not being in favour of...

Not being in WA and not being in favour of under-investing in health, however, supply of trained medical staff would be the limiting factor, as opposed to (say) any shortage of mullah or will. Those...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

19th Sep 2021, 11:02

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

Rubbish modelling, not "enveloped" by a...

Rubbish modelling, not "enveloped" by a comparable reality in say Malta, Denmark (etc), or even UK. Malta running at about 1 death p.w., Transpose to Vic pro-rata to population that is 10 p.w throw...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

9th Sep 2021, 09:51

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

Malta And before anyone reaches for the UK...

Malta

And before anyone reaches for the UK as a key example, do not compare infection rates under restrictions at lower vax % with infection rates without restrictions at higher vax %

What will...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

5th Sep 2021, 10:16

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

Lets just see what is actually happening once we...

Lets just see what is actually happening once we reach 70%/80%, and especially what the ongoing vaccination pace is as we cross the thresholds. All premiers and their friends are busy putting words...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

15th Aug 2021, 04:36

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

False negatives provide swiss cheese holes, that...

False negatives provide swiss cheese holes, that line up with other cheese holes, and start outbreaks which put us into restrictions and lockdowns. False positives change percentages a little bit,...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

14th Aug 2021, 15:43

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

Hand-drawn to protect the innocent, this is based...

Hand-drawn to protect the innocent, this is based on some reputable data, it is the PCR test sensitivity, for true positive cases. Explains why pax are leaving hotel quarrie and then doing some...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

14th Aug 2021, 15:14

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

PCR tests are maximum about 80% true positive....

PCR tests are maximum about 80% true positive. That is pre-delta and at day 4-6 of infection; ramps up prior and down after. Worry about the false negative rate, not the other way. Really bewildering...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

14th Aug 2021, 13:12

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

I do understand why people are lashing out but it...

I do understand why people are lashing out but it is not very rational. Govts need to keep COVID out because they have no effective means of suppressing it other than keeping people stationary and...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

14th Aug 2021, 12:56

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

Doesn't really matter that much. 1% or 0.1...

Doesn't really matter that much. 1% or 0.1 percent fatality rate is still a lot. 1 in 1e+5 or 1e+6 is different and generally thought tolerable. Vax means 1e+5 or so. That's all that matters, rest is...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

14th Aug 2021, 10:13

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

Vaccinations passports might be a little...

Vaccinations passports might be a little pointless only if you think that the purpose is to indicate that said person won't catch it nor won't transit it. Quite useful if you think the purpose is to...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

7th Dec 2020, 20:31

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

I'm only aware of reports of this occurring in...

I'm only aware of reports of this occurring in rare cases where there remains conjecture about what recurrence is indicating, and where symptoms are mild. If there is a considerable swing towards...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

7th Dec 2020, 09:43

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

boeinga320 let me guess. Even though you have had...

boeinga320 let me guess. Even though you have had COVID-19 *and* the governments of the world are obsessed with vaccines and how quickly they can get hold of them, you have gone and got yourself...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

7th Dec 2020, 08:52

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

boeinga320, I truly can't comprehend why people...

boeinga320, I truly can't comprehend why people under (say) 30 are putting up with this, and as far as I can tell, it is not destined to get better any time soon. I don't have any insight into South...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

6th Dec 2020, 12:50

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

There's no assistance from me for your argument,...

There's no assistance from me for your argument, I will recap. Back at post #2283 you demonstrated ignorance of the reality of COVID-19 prevalence in Victoria by a factor of 10,000. You then...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

6th Dec 2020, 10:06

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

Kind of hilarious -- a pilot (I guess) who...

Kind of hilarious -- a pilot (I guess) who doesn't understand chance events, and decides to miscalculate a ratio by about 10^4 ---.Vic is 20K cases from around 6M ppl, that's better than one in a...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

5th Dec 2020, 09:40

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

I accept Boris Johnson is abnormal, and for that...

I accept Boris Johnson is abnormal, and for that reason he needed ventilation to keep living. I accept Tim Brooke Taylor was gonna die anyway, yada yada.

Where I am currently sitting in my man...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

18th Nov 2020, 13:13

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

Not a pilot; and usually politically quite left...

Not a pilot; and usually politically quite left of centre. I am involved in COVID data work and advisory including analysis towards air travel reopening. I can say that 'zero' is a bloody-minded,...

Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific

19th Jun 2020, 09:50

Replies: 9,802

All borders to reopen.

Views: 1,791,314

Posted By unexplained blip

Three is the number I have read (for Victoria)...

Three is the number I have read (for Victoria) but also it is being said that they didn't catch it at the protest. If that second part is true then it is trouble with a capital T. It means that out...

Showing results 1 to 19 of 19