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Panic Buying

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Panic Buying

Old 27th Sep 2021, 13:13
  #101 (permalink)  
 
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Government line today is there no plan to use the Army, at present, and the problem will go away on its own in a few days.

Indications are foreign drivers are not that enthused about leaving their current jobs and families just to come over for a few months only to get the boot again. So that is fingers crossed and, if you are an Army tanker driver, don't make any plans.

Sigh!
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 13:34
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
Government line today is there no plan to use the Army, at present, and the problem will go away on its own in a few days.

Indications are foreign drivers are not that enthused about leaving their current jobs and families just to come over for a few months only to get the boot again. So that is fingers crossed and, if you are an Army tanker driver, don't make any plans. Sigh!
All working well before last Thursday, before the precipitated manufactured "crisis" (thank "the media!!". No real reason why it should not go back to "normal" within a few days. A few people will not need a return trip to the filling station for a week, full tank!! Oil is still being taken from the ground and passing through the processing system....

Re: your second point. If we need more tanker drivers, then we need to be employing more and training them. This reliance on folk from overseas is pure short termism. A well known phenomenon in this country...
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 13:39
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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But it wasn't working well was it? It was the closure of BP stations, in particular, that started the story running. Road haulage has been on a knife edge for sometime, this crisis is just the latest manifestation of the issue,
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 13:45
  #104 (permalink)  
 
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Presumably the upsurge in on line ordering and consequent deliveries has not helped, but if so it has taken its time to work through.
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 13:57
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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Hopefully some European hgv drivers and other required workers will come over er and help us out.

Having just had a chat with a Polish hgv driver, i was interested why he had 7 damaged new model uk registered bmw's loaded up. Got talking about working in the Uk he tells me they use their ID cards as passports around the EU and Uk. Great but the Uk in a couple of days they will require paper passports only to enter UK.
Which he tells me its more expense and will take a few months to acquire one. Maybe our Government will delay wanting Europeans to have a paper passport.

Oh the bmw s are repaired in Romania and brought back to be sold the UK

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Old 27th Sep 2021, 14:09
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DType View Post
Presumably the upsurge in on line ordering and consequent deliveries has not helped, but if so it has taken its time to work through.
Might not be that simple.

If you're looking at fuel usage, it's quite plausible that people having stuff delivered by people in vans is more fuel-efficient than everyone driving to the shops for the same number of items, because the delivery driver is typically only driving a few hundred additional yards per customer.

If you're looking at HGV driver hours, once again it's plausible that online delivery is more efficient, because a higher proportion of HGV deliveries will be to logistics centres, which are generally chosen for good transport links, rather than to High Street shops.

White Van Man hours will obviously be much greater than before, but the people driving vans are presumably not trained HGV drivers.
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 14:14
  #107 (permalink)  
 
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Perhaps news shots of thousands of lorries queueing on the hard shoulders for Dover, or being held responsible for aggressive refugees has dented the job image.

If Labour really speak for the working class, though, why don’t they get some off the dole and into lorry driving lessons?
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 14:15
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Another James View Post
Hopefully some European hgv drivers and other required workers will come over er and help us out.

Having just had a chat with a Polish hgv driver, i was interested why he had 7 damaged new model uk registered bmw's loaded up. Got talking about working in the Uk he tells me they use their ID cards as passports around the EU and Uk. Great but the Uk in a couple of days they will require paper passports only to enter UK.
Which he tells me its more expense and will take a few months to acquire one. Maybe our Government will delay wanting Europeans to have a paper passport.

Oh the bmw s are repaired in Romania and brought back to be sold the UK
A Dutch guy was interviewed on BBC News this morning and said exactly what I had 2 days ago; why would an EU driver give up a job in the EU to come to the UK for 3 months and return home jobless? Only a total dimbo would do that. The requirement to have a full passport to get into UK will just be a further discouragement / obstacle to EU drivers coming to help out here, exactly as your Polish friend said.

The government plan is, as with many from this government, ill thought out and doomed to failure. Sitting on their hands and fiddling while Rome burns (insofar as not getting military drivers involved at this stage) is just another example of that. The public's addiction to motor fuel will ensure that the crisis will be prolonged with many putting in 10 litres here and 10 litres there as they need it, and find open fuel stations, so the excess demand won't fall as fast as the government would like it to.

All in all the UK is beginning to look for like Lebanon, without the sunshine and heat, and less like a modern Western European country.
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 14:19
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ninthace View Post
But it wasn't working well was it? It was the closure of BP stations, in particular, that started the story running. Road haulage has been on a knife edge for sometime, this crisis is just the latest manifestation of the issue,
If you believe what we are being fed.... It is a "manufactured" crisis..... When the supply chain refills all will return to "normal"... Take a few days... Media caravan will move on elsewhere for its latest story...
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 14:29
  #110 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
The public's addiction to motor fuel will ensure that the crisis will be prolonged with many putting in 10 litres here and 10 litres there as they need it, and find open fuel stations, so the excess demand won't fall as fast as the government would like it to.
The excess demand is caused by people filling tanks that would otherwise be empty or part-empty. Once they've done this, the ongoing demand will match what people use, just as it did until last week; the only difference is that more people will be driving around with full or nearly-full tanks. The supply chain only has to deliver enough additional fuel to get everyone from empty to full, and then everything should return to normal.

Putting in 10 litres at a time will increase the number of transactions, but it won't (unless people drive a significant extra distance to fill up) actually increase the total amount sold.

Over time, when they get used to being able to buy fuel when they need it, more people will return to driving around with mostly empty tanks, if only because it helps personal cashflow. That will set us up for the next round of panic buying.
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 14:33
  #111 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Planemike View Post
If you believe what we are being fed.... It is a "manufactured" crisis..... When the supply chain refills all will return to "normal"... Take a few days... Media caravan will move on elsewhere for its latest story...
Up until the media got involved the situation was probably, by and large manageable, then there were the closure of a few BP sites, the media (beginning with the BBC) picked it up and the rest, as they say history. I suspect up until that point there was just enough capacity within the delivery system to keep everything hunky dory, some kind of hitch obviously hit the BP contractor, and because there was little, if any slack in the system as a whole we are where we are now.

The manufacturers of the crisis may have been the media, but it's social media and inherent selfishness of a large slice of the population (the same slice that bought up toilet rolls no doubt) that is prolonging it. The underlying issues that have caused the tightening of the supply chain land fairly and squarely on the doormat of number 10.
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 14:42
  #112 (permalink)  
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All that spare toilet roll will come in useful when their low-grade plastic containers of fuel start leaking (I vaguely recall Rutan's Voyager had an issue with plastic fuel lines deteriorating after being in contact with avgas during early test flights).

One benefit of all this nonsense has been the cessation of silly little boys driving round making their cars backfire.
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 14:51
  #113 (permalink)  
 
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I recall the '98(?) fuel crisis took at least a week for the supply situation to resolve itself - and that was with fewer cars on the road and a full complement of fuel delivery drivers...
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 14:56
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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When a supply chain is on a knife edge, it does not take much to tip it over. There were reports of fuel shortages in the form of closed filling stations in Jet Blast even before the crisis broke and I suspect this was true of other platforms. Yes the media picked up on it and sensationalised it, which only made a bad situation worse as there was virtually no resilience in the system. To that extent, it was a crisis waiting to happen and it would have occurred sooner or later, even without the media's help. Closed filling stations tend not to go unnoticed and social media would do the rest.

Now that the issue is out in the open, it is much harder to get the genie back in the bottle. There is every likelihood that people will elect to top off their tanks whenever they see fuel rather run their tanks low. This in itself may be enough to prolong the crisis especially as more and more people elect to follow the same strategy. The sensible thing to do is to try to get as many filling stations open and keep them that way for several days. If they do, folk may start to relax and demand may subside but the underlying issue has still not been addressed and the risk of a repeat remains.

Irrational optimism may be a satisfactory basis for an individual to run their life but, for a national government, I would prefer something a bit more thought out, preferably with the word "contingency" in there somewhere.
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 16:48
  #115 (permalink)  
 
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There is a full complement of fuel delivery drivers at the moment. It's a (relatively) well paid profession, as it should be with the responsibility required. The shortage is of HGV drivers that are expected to sleep overnight in their cabs, pee (and worse) behind a bush and are generally unwelcome everywhere. The media reported a fuel shortage in a few locations, hyped it up, made it the first item on TV broadcasts and front page headlines in newspapers - the rest was self-fulfilling. They now report on queues and keep up the momentum of panic buying. I certainly don't want to see the press censored a la North Korea, but some news editors need taking to task over this situation they have helped create.
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 17:20
  #116 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tourops View Post
There is a full complement of fuel delivery drivers at the moment. It's a (relatively) well paid profession, as it should be with the responsibility required. The shortage is of HGV drivers that are expected to sleep overnight in their cabs, pee (and worse) behind a bush and are generally unwelcome everywhere. The media reported a fuel shortage in a few locations, hyped it up, made it the first item on TV broadcasts and front page headlines in newspapers - the rest was self-fulfilling. They now report on queues and keep up the momentum of panic buying. I certainly don't want to see the press censored a la North Korea, but some news editors need taking to task over this situation they have helped create.
There clearly isn't a full complement of drivers, the Petrol Retailers Association said so themselves, but there were enough to keep the retail motor fuel businesses one step ahead until the journalists got their claws into the news that a few BP sites had had to close then the sh1t hit the fan.

You are right, there are downsides to a free press, but in this day and age I fear that social media is at least as effective at egging up a supply crisis as the BBC or The Sun.
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 17:37
  #117 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tourops View Post
There is a full complement of fuel delivery drivers at the moment. It's a (relatively) well paid profession, as it should be with the responsibility required. The shortage is of HGV drivers that are expected to sleep overnight in their cabs, pee (and worse) behind a bush and are generally unwelcome everywhere. The media reported a fuel shortage in a few locations, hyped it up, made it the first item on TV broadcasts and front page headlines in newspapers - the rest was self-fulfilling. They now report on queues and keep up the momentum of panic buying. I certainly don't want to see the press censored a la North Korea, but some news editors need taking to task over this situation they have helped create.
So which came first, the fuel shortage closed filling stations or the news story? If there was no shortage, why were there filling stations without fuel before the story broke?
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 18:09
  #118 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tourops View Post
There is a full complement of fuel delivery drivers at the moment. It's a (relatively) well paid profession, as it should be with the responsibility required. The shortage is of HGV drivers that are expected to sleep overnight in their cabs, pee (and worse) behind a bush and are generally unwelcome everywhere. The media reported a fuel shortage in a few locations, hyped it up, made it the first item on TV broadcasts and front page headlines in newspapers - the rest was self-fulfilling. They now report on queues and keep up the momentum of panic buying. I certainly don't want to see the press censored a la North Korea, but some news editors need taking to task over this situation they have helped create.
Absolutely agree..................!! A headline such as ""One million cars successfully fuelled in a day"" is unlikely to sell many papers or what ever the online equivalent is...!!
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 19:19
  #119 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Cornish Jack View Post
.............That this should be so, is not, in any way, surprising, since it follows a pattern established since the Buffoon's attainment of his 'boyhood dream'...................
You often call Boris Johnson this: Who would have done a better job over the last few years? Jeremy Corbyn, perhaps: with his, ahem, legendary interpersonal skills, and Diane Abbot maybe with her rapier-like command of maths and figures !!
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Old 27th Sep 2021, 20:53
  #120 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pasta View Post
The excess demand is caused by people filling tanks that would otherwise be empty or part-empty. Once they've done this, the ongoing demand will match what people use, just as it did until last week; the only difference is that more people will be driving around with full or nearly-full tanks. The supply chain only has to deliver enough additional fuel to get everyone from empty to full, and then everything should return to normal.
Presumably the same applies to toilet roll. Once people have filled every cupboard in their homes with rolls - then ongoing demand will match wiping activity.
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